March 1, 2025
Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path remains highly complex, as it interacts with a series of mid-latitude weather systems. While Alfred is expected to track southeast tomorrow in response to an approaching upper trough, increasing wind shear will likely weaken it to a Category 2 system by tomorrow.
However, the long-term track remains uncertain. There is growing confidence that Alfred may perform a U-turn mid-next week, potentially bringing it back towards the southern Queensland or northern NSW coastlines. This includes the heavily populated Southeast Coast, heightening concerns for increased impacts.
Why Could Alfred Turn Back Towards the Coast?
The expected westerly shift would be driven by two key factors:
A new ridge building to its south, which would act to push Alfred westward.
Baroclinic influence – unlike a classic tropical cyclone, Alfred may start drawing energy from cooler air aloft, which could allow it to survive longer in an otherwise less favourable environment.
A ridge is expected to build to the south of Alfred which may assist in pushing Alfred westwards mid to late next week. Alfred is likely to become entrenched within an upper trough - this means Alfred may lose some of its tropical characteristics allowing it to push west into the upper trough. Source: MetCentre
While this westward shift raises the risk of an impact, it is not yet a certainty. Alfred has already displayed erratic movement, and further changes to its track remain possible. However, residents along the southern Queensland coastline should now be on alert and consider preparations in case Alfred moves closer next week.
Likely Impacts
Prolonged gales & dangerous surf – Strong winds and hazardous coastal conditions are highly likely along the southern Queensland coastline for much of next week, even if Alfred remains offshore.
Increasing showers from mid-week - At the very least, increasing showers are likely but heavy rainfall may become an increased concern if Alfred continues to track west.
Possible Impacts
Risk of a crossing (or the system moving very close to the coastline) is increasing – A shift westward could bring Alfred dangerously close to Southeast Queensland or northern NSW.
Such a scenario significantly increases the potential for damaging winds and flooding rainfall.
GFS and ACCESS forecast rainfall for the next 10 days showing potential rainfall scenarios should Alfred come ashore. Torrential rain and flooding would become a concern. Source: MetCentre
Virtually all forecast models suggest Alfred will at least come very close to the coastline by mid to late next week. Source: MetCentre
Monitor Closely & Stay Prepared
While uncertainty remains, the risk of Alfred impacting the populated southern Queensland coastline is increasing due to the complex steering systems present
Stay informed & monitor updates – Forecasts may continue to evolve - it's important that residents pay attention to reputable weather updates over the coming days.
Have a plan in place – If Alfred moves closer, being prepared will make all the difference - see https://www.getready.qld.gov.au/plan on how you can prepare for any natural disaster.
With Alfred’s unpredictable track, Queenslanders should stay vigilant and ready for any developments over the coming days.
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