East Coast Low Threatens Gales from Sydney to Brisbane

June 28, 2025

A large East Coast Low is likely to develop off the NSW coastline on Tuesday next week, bringing widespread gales along with coastal damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

A strong upper trough will approach during tomorrow and Monday, helping to initially develop some dry season rain across eastern Queensland. This will induce a small low off the southern Queensland coastline on Monday. However, this low will track southwards and rapidly intensify overnight, helping to generate strong winds and potentially heavy rainfall along areas of the NSW coastline.

Some cloud and patchy rain and showers will develop across eastern Queensland this weekend and into Monday in response to an approaching upper trough. Source: https://metcentre.io/

Mid-Week Complexity

Where this system becomes complicated is that a secondary upper trough will approach on Wednesday, which could cause the low to track westwards (closer to the coastline) for a brief period or result in a secondary low developing that prolongs the event into Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of upper trough will induce a complex low pressure system (possible East Coast Low) off the NSW coastline. Source: https://metcentre.io/

Widespread Winds Likely

The impacts to the east coast will depend on the movement and positioning of the low—though the most likely concern is gales and damaging wind gusts. Currently, damaging wind gusts should mostly remain quite coastal and be limited to the Illawarra–Sydney–Hunter–Mid North Coast areas (and these may only impact areas close to the coastline). Gale-force wind gusts, however, are likely to be far more widespread, potentially occurring across much of the NSW coastline and extending inland towards the NSW Central and Northern Tablelands. On Wednesday, these gale-force wind gusts may also extend into southeastern Queensland.

ACCESS & EC maximum wind gust swathes for the next 7 days. Yellows and oranges donate gale force wind gusts, while reds and purples denote damaging wind gusts. Source: https://metcentre.io/

Rainfall Likely - But Amounts & Position Vary

The concerns around rainfall (while present) are a little less certain. That’s because winds may be quite S/SW, which doesn’t favour pushing moisture onto the coastline as much. However, should the system become multi-centred (which is possible), this will increase the complexity of the wind field and bring a higher chance of heavier falls. The areas most likely to experience heavy rainfall will be the Illawarra–Sydney–Hunter–southern Mid North Coast regions.

ACCESS & EC accumulated precipitation forecasts for the next 7 days. There remains some uncertainty as to how how much rainfall will extend inland which will ultimately determine the flood risks. Source: https://metcentre.io/

Flooding Risk for Saturated Catchments

The concern is that areas of the northern Hunter and southern Mid North Coast were among the hardest hit by the deluge and record flooding that occurred just a month ago. Fortunately, rainfall totals should be less than the May event, but the saturated nature of catchments means that it may not take much rainfall for the region to experience moderate or potentially major flooding once again.

Given windy conditions are a likely outcome, residents and businesses along the NSW coastline should consider taking simple precautions like ensuring there are no overhanging branches over your home, and avoiding parking under or around trees during the following days (particularly Tuesday until Thursday). Further, residents across eastern NSW should pay attention to the weather over the coming days should conditions escalate.

Weatherwatch – your trusted partner in weather intelligence.