More Rain for NSW & Queensland as East Coast Low Looms

May 15, 2025

Unusually persistent easterly winds are bringing elevated humidity and daily showers to the NSW and Queensland coastlines this May. The Gold Coast has seen rainfall on all but two days this month. In fact the Gold Coast has also had 48 days where rain has fallen out of the past 75 this Autumn - illustrating the showery patterns and already above the longer term average for Autumn with another 16 days to go.

EC Wind Gusts showing an East Coast Low off the central to northern NSW coastline on Monday evening. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

More Rain on the Way

A small low off the northern NSW coastline today will bring wet conditions across large portions of the NSW coastline. Meanwhile another upper trough will approach tomorrow helping to generate further areas of rain and even some thunder across the southeastern quarter of Queensland and the northeastern quarter of NSW with some local 30-50mm falls a possibility.

EC rainfall showing wet conditions are likely across areas of NE NSW and SE QLD, with most of the rain occurring tomorrow afternoon until early Saturday for SE QLD. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

East Coast Low Threat Looms for Early Next Week

EC 500mb temperatures with the strong upper trough pushing into NSW on Sunday night which will develop a possible East Coast Low. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

The main weather concern arrives Sunday into Monday, as a stronger upper trough sweeps through, potentially spawning an East Coast Low off the central NSW coast. While model guidance differs on the exact placement and timing, there is growing consensus that a relatively strong low may develop which brings the threat of heavy rain, flooding and gales. However these systems already remain variable - and we're likely to see variation occur through the forecast over the coming days (particularly with respect to position).

EC, ACCESS and GFS next 10 days rainfall showing the potential for heavy rainfall along the NSW coastline. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

Businesses and residents along the NSW coastline are advised to monitor the situation closely and prepare for the possibility of heavy rainfall and strong winds next week.

There is variation in the strength and positioning of the low across forecast models meaning that the outlook is subject to change. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

Drier Break for Southeast Queensland?

The silver lining for Southeast Queensland is that the low’s projected position may temporarily push drier air into the region, reducing shower activity early to mid next week. However conditions will get wetter before they get drier with rain and thunder likely to occur later tomorrow before eventually easing.

EC rainfall showing drier conditions next week for Southeast Queensland bringing some potential welcome relief to the relentless showers. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre

Patterns Remain Unusual

While a break is expected, the broader climatic patterns will support onshore winds for the remainder of the month meaning that the elusive dry season for winter may still be some distance away. That's linked to a very stubbornly positive Southern Annular Mode meaning that cold frontal activity remains below average (which would traditionally help bring rainfall to southeastern Australia and then drier conditions to the east coast).

Further, with warm ocean temperatures present off the east coast, it brings the potential for further East Coast Lows (or similar low pressure systems) to occur in the coming weeks.

The Southern Annular Mode has remained stubbornly positive this autumn contributing to the lack of rainfall across the southeastern states while enhancing showers across the east coast.

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