September 21, 2024
Odds Increase for NSW Coastal Heavy Rain & Low
Parts of eastern NSW are increasingly likely to experience a rare September drenching, thanks to the potential development of a low-pressure system off the coastline.
Upper Trough in Western Australia to Track Eastwards
Recently, attention has been on Western Australia, where an upper trough has brought widespread rain and storms. That same system is expected to move east, resulting in a cold pool of air tracking over NSW from Thursday into the weekend.
EC 500mb temperatures on Friday afternoon showing a cold upper cold pool of air across NSW - which will drive the development of a likely low pressure system along the NSW coastline. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
This pattern could lead to the formation of a low-pressure system off the coast, pulling in strong and gusty, humid onshore winds and bringing several days of significant rainfall.
Potential for Heavy Rainfall & Strong Winds - But High Variability Exists
While there is good confidence of the low developing (and consequently, the potential for heavy rainfall and strong winds), there remains a very high degree of variability between forecast models about exactly where the low will track. Consequently, models are divided on the heaviest rainfall occurring anywhere from Sydney to north of Coffs Harbour. Should the positioning of the low continue to change - there may be further changes in forecast rainfall amounts and positioning.
Next 7 days rainfall for NSW from different forecast models showing the variability of forecast rainfall totals. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
Keep an Eye on the Forecast
Our team will be closely monitoring this event in the coming days, with the severe weather on the horizon. Residents and businesses along the central to northern NSW coastline should stay updated on weather forecasts over the coming days.
Weatherwatch MetGraph for Coffs Harbour showing a significant variation in rainfall totals for Coffs Harbour. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre.
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