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Risk of Storms & Hail to Follow Record NE NSW Rainfall

September 29, 2024

A recent low produced gales and heavy rain. It's now moved away from the coastline but still shows impressive organisation for September.


Record Rainfall in NE NSW


Parts of northeastern NSW have recorded their wettest September on record, following a hybrid low that brought gales and heavy rainfall. Lismore saw a staggering 253.6mm of rain this month—over five times the September average, making it the wettest September since records began 140 years ago in 1884!


Nearby McLeans Ridges recorded an even higher 315mm, more than six times its September average of 50.7mm.


The Wilsons River reached minor flooding in Lismore. Further forecast rainfall is not expected to make a significant impact to flood levels. Source: BoM


Other Notable Rainfall Totals


Several other locations in the region also experienced significant rainfall, with most of the downpour occurring in the last three days:

  • Dorrigo: 225.7mm (nearly 3x the average)

  • Coffs Harbour: 208mm (more than 3x the average)

  • Ballina: 208mm (3x the average)


Recorded rainfall across NE NSW during the past 3 days via the Virtual Rain Gauge Network. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre


Rainfall Totals in Southeast Queensland

As expected, rainfall amounts were lighter north of the NSW border, but still notable given September is usually dry:

  • Springbrook: 100.5mm

  • Gold Coast: 62.6mm

  • Brisbane: 42.2mm


These totals are around 1.5 times the average for this time of year, making them significant.


Recorded rainfall across SE QLD during the past 3 days via the Virtual Rain Gauge Network. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre


Storms with Possible Hail to Follow Tomorrow


Tomorrow (Monday 30th September), a brief burst of warmer northerly winds will be shortlived due to a southeast change sweeping through and combining with an approaching upper trough. This is likely to bring scattered showers and storms over the region.


ACCESS G forecast rainfall showing some heavier shower and possible convective rainfall across NE NSW tomorrow. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre


While it's not a conventional severe storm setup, there's a reasonable chance of some hail in any storm that can remain clear and free of any showers thanks to the cold air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Some of this activity may creep into the far southern areas of Southeast Queensland during the evening.


ACCESS G forecast sounding for northeastern NSW. This shows strong mid-level wind shear, with some sharp, low to mid-level instability (despite the presence of warm air in the upper atmosphere) which may support some hail in storm activity. Source: Weatherwatch MetCentre


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