What Dry Season? Winter Rain on the Way for NSW & Queensland

July 22, 2025

EC rainfall across Australia during the next 7 days. Source: MetCentre.io

Unseasonal Rainfall for the Sunshine State

July is typically a dry time of year for much of Queensland and northern NSW, but two bands of showers, rain, and even some embedded storm activity are on the way during a period that usually favours rainfall in southern Australia.

Cold Fronts Meet Coral Sea Moisture

The culprit? A series of stronger cold fronts sweeping across the nation. The first is currently extending through NSW and Victoria, generating bands of gales and damaging winds across southeastern Australia. This is colliding with unseasonably high levels of moisture across eastern Australia — partially thanks to a prolonged positive SAM phase that’s seen easterly winds dominate much of winter across eastern NSW and Queensland.

A low is tracking near the Vic/SA border and is bringing widespread gales. Max observed wind gusts from the past 24 hours. Source: HailTracker.io

Light to Moderate Rainfall Initially

The first band is likely to bring rainfall across large parts of NSW, extending into southeastern and central-eastern Queensland. Rainfall is likely to be light, with average falls of around 7–15mm across the region (with locally higher totals of 15–30mm about the ranges).

Winds and 850mb temperatures across Australia today (July 22), and forecast rainfall during the next 48 hours from EC and ACCESS G. Source: MetCentre.io

Stronger System Looms for the Weekend with more Rainfall

An even stronger cold front will approach on Friday and Saturday, likely bringing more widespread rainfall and slightly higher totals and falls of 15–30mm are likely to develop across NSW and large parts of Queensland, along with some embedded thunderstorm activity. Locally higher falls may also occur mixed in with this.

Winds and 850mb temperatures across Australia on Saturday (July 26), and forecast rainfall over Friday and the weekend rom EC and ACCESS G. Source: MetCentre.io

Severe Storm Risk Marginal for Now

Due to the high levels of cloud and moisture, the chance of severe storms may be limited -especially compared to recent events earlier this month, like the hailstorms in NSW and large amounts of hail that fell across Brisbane's western suburbs last Friday. While isolated severe storms can’t be ruled out, they'll likely be very hit and miss. These setups can evolve quickly, though, so updates may still be needed and we'll watch the Friday and Saturday setup closely which may see a slightly higher threat of severe storms occur over rural areas of Queensland depending on the amount of cloud cover.

Snow on the Northern NSW Ranges?

Thanks to the strength of the weekend’s cold front, some light snow may even develop on Sunday around the northern NSW ranges - a rare winter 'treat' for those in higher elevations that typically occurs once or twice per year on average. This will also bring some cooler conditions and colder nights as the recent more humid easterly winds get pushed offshore from the gusty, westerly winds.

Weatherwatch – your trusted partner in weather intelligence.